Study Finds Association Between Climate Changes, Civil Unrest
For some time scientists, diplomats and policy makers have speculated about a possible association between climate changes, war and other civil unrest. In fact it is an issue that US military strategists have noted as a great long-term concern. However, a recent study in the prestigious journal Nature has found a positive statistical association between the climate phenomenon, El Nino and La Nina, and the likelihood of civil conflicts breaking out in parts of our world.
As Andy Solow of MIT indicates in a recent NPR interview, “the effect of weather on human behavior is presumably operating through resource scarcity or food scarcity… A lot of these countries are poor and mainly agricultural. As climate conditions change, that can put stress on the agricultural system in those countries — also possibly on water resources and other resources. And that may lead to conflict.”
Finding a statistical association obviously does not prove causation, nor do the authors indicate all conflicts are not necessarily bad when other economic or social grievances are present. For instance they note similar associations can be found in many historical moments of unrest, including the French Revolution. However, the association is one that should be noted both by humanitarians interested in better predicting future international crisis, as well as politicians and military leaders interested in how to avert conflict.
Other related coverage:
- Does El Nino—and Climate Change—Really Cause Civil Wars? (Time Magazine)
- Does Climate Cause War (International Business Times)